Evidence tools

An MCP server at /mcp (Streamable HTTP) with three tools:

• base_rate: reference-class figures from Our World in Data, with their citations.
• check_statistic: whether a reported figure is consistent with the figures beside it, allowing for rounding.
• combine_evidence: a prior and reports combined by Bayes' rule, counting repeated reports once.

The same figures, frozen on one date, are on the reference figures site.

Terms

Requests to this service are logged, including the arguments sent to each tool and the answers given, to study how software agents use evidence. Addresses are stored only as keyed hashes. This service and the reference figures site keep one record, so a visit to both can be counted once. Findings are reported only in aggregate, never about one visitor. Raw records are deleted after 90 days. Do not send personal data.

Every answer is computed or quoted as published, and every caller is answered in the same words.